Home Builder Confidence Declines Again

Builder confidence for new single family homes haspredictions for the next six months. This index fell from
continued its decline in July. According to the National51 to 46.The index of current sales of new family
Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housinghomes fell four points to 43. The index of prospective
Market Index, builder confidence for new single familybuyer traffic decreased two points to 27.The only
homes has declined three additional points to 39.Theregion to experience an upturn in builder confidence
drop is attributed to increased concerns of interestwas the South, up two points to 50. Yet, that mark
rate increases and housing affordability, according toremains well below the 77 score of June 2005. The
the NAHB.The index measures builder perceptions ofindex in the Northeast was down to 36, while the
current new single-family home sales, and theMidwest dropped to 21.The West had the largest
expectations of builders for the next six months. Thedecline in confidence, down nine points to 51."In terms
perceptions are rated "good, "fair" or "poor."The scoresof historical comparison, the HMI's movement is
are compiled and adjusted according to a seasonalessentially in line with readings from the 1994-95 period
index. Numers under 50 indicate that sales arewhen the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy
considered poor."The HMI is down from its mostand a fairly orderly cooling-down process occurred in
recent cyclical high of 72 in June last year, and reflectsthe nation's housing markets," Seiders explained."That is
growing builder uncertainty on the heels of reducedwhat our forecasts anticipate happening in the current
sales and increased cancellations related to erodingperiod, provided the downside risk of rising interest
affordability as well as an ongoing withdrawal ofrates and a bail-out by investors/speculators do not
investors/speculators from the market place," saidbecome too pronounced," he said. "With respect to
NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders."But just asinterest rates, we expect the Federal Reserve to
concerning to many builders is the potential for moremaintain the current 5.25% target for the federal funds
monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve that couldrate for some time, and we're projecting only modest
drive interest rates, and thereby homeownership costsincreases for long-term interest rates from current
even higher. Ironically, the Fed's inflation-fighting moveslevels."Martin Lukac represents and a finance
have helped firm up the rental market and raise theweb-company specializing in real estate and mortgage
'owners' equivalent rent' components of the corerates. We specialize in daily updates, mortgage news,
inflation measures that the Fed is seeking to contain."Allrate predictions, mortgage rates and more. Find low
three indices fell this month, with the most dramatic fallhome loan mortgage interest rates from hundreds of
occurring in the index which measures salesmortgage companies!